Glenn Fogel, Head of worldwide strategy and planning shares his thoughts on the inherently un-predictable nature of the travel industry and his outlook on the future.
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
I'm Glenn -- I would Priceline Europe -- -- strategy group higher right forum made a red drive right -- Priceline dangerous. I used to be a banker who still hold that against me -- redouble their against -- so -- grader. So why people think that you're you -- -- guy who said. It is very difficult to make predictions. Especially about the future as it is another kind of it's definitely something that -- you'd probably say yeah. -- out our that -- he didn't say there's actually guy who said it was mailed more -- is the wires is dead now is a Danish physicist won the Nobel Prize. In no doubt when he said it -- -- -- -- Belarus might think say. -- -- price of fifteen years collected change let -- little bit instead of being you know solid that the future that be deemed serious type were added. -- -- It's very very difficult make predictions. About the travel industry this is in the -- mark -- things that we have C. Over the last fifteen years. Nobody ever could have predicted is somebody company -- will -- be that things were happening well -- -- -- -- job and lead. -- stick the first. I came in this 2000 beginning -- 201989. Back can't just bubble market was a bubble. Everybody but things -- going to be fantastic. Rice -- did all right PO debate you're making any. Doubt. -- billion dollar market cap shortly after the like yeah. And -- perhaps well we get beat up hockey all home you know people -- central what how sites like that. Market cap went down just a couple hundred million -- backup copies disappeared into our your -- what are going to be what's gonna happen terror. Well -- -- decline or our business so anything dealt with travel go back on will it wasn't just the Dhaka which. So annoyances in my thirty years ago that debt changed the way we're gonna travel foot ever. We do about that this -- was out worse -- -- -- might happen. Already a rich get terrorism. Electrical while it's just recently -- -- -- Ukraine. I think we do about -- struck -- -- it's completely unpredictable. Our testing we predict that the going to be a poor white and Amex pink product was pandemic will likely. -- fourteen hundred's will offer products. I was travel. What the resource point two Asia. You're -- -- play into empty your life because of few things that make people more afraid of travel. But you're gonna get into -- sea level will -- -- but there's maybe somebody -- -- -- virus. Nobody wanted travel that -- rate now we have all angles was going to happen there. -- -- Let us. -- means look at the semantics and there's a slightly -- public had so hardly. Let no one wake up song when he part of travel only -- the Indian Ocean in Asia can remember that horrible. We -- earthquake. Here on the costs and timing what's gonna put them looking hot what's not want to go which can draw. What about banks. But would protect its could be up arcane. Scotia company has beating Europe -- all week I was alone at the time crackpot. Nobody gonna -- up. There -- people -- industry that global financial. Net really put big quick why people those -- Forget forward predicted that it doesn't -- gold backed away all the banks are welcome on -- appear. Public for the predicted that. They -- predicted these things all this time scale -- anything ever gonna come back. And today. Our lives quite a point a record at. A tells the market pursue green hotels right now approaching record and some people predict they got hit records. So back in the day in all -- 2000 why do we 2002. When things were still think whatever we. What are better you know thirteen years -- things are going to be going over very well. Now the question is are they going to continue to go well. All the rain storms on the rise. You know I think I agree with the Euro yen -- of assuming -- we did actually say it's very difficult to make predictions that especially about the future. And that by making prediction that's because everything is -- recorded no unity is going to be some of the -- earlier written by the availability you know our better accuracy of that. What are we gonna see instead bell -- as -- says we think about what might happen. It seems -- hundred year flood into Kabul what offer mega refinery use. -- what I'm thinking me wanna do particularly -- business is not richer but you're still roiling the business rapidly. This deal and their liberal -- bid for a mid stage. One thing you really want to think about -- -- have enough capital. Bring up Apple's pretty easily get and adult. The -- -- you should always raise capital when you can. Is a boom roared to gold by a question we want to the recent capital -- -- things but. When you need look out well that's when everything is bad and nobody is gonna give -- back at the second thing I think about us. Things are not apply. What you always want to rethink its cheap -- -- execute my business -- in better. They -- less risk. By combining with somebody else or maybe bigger risk. We've done that many many times with people like pretty good business -- But they've got you know I join up with the prospect of -- your life better take up my reps because that view that's Kabila -- You wanna think about that such abusive by saying only be web. I want to another area now. And issue about 200 your flied out you know but things could disrupt -- -- -- happening natural disasters it not happening macro economic collapse since. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- How the government recap thanks to these you big news. Is going to really influence weather -- this you just rocket technology. Is -- of course terrible disruption to your business. More of the wave it around work through it -- our electoral laws I think you really have to think about. What I'd like to talk about is that if you were thinking that strategy. You have to pick. About. Wiped away I think it's quite happy with the goal of making cash -- nine. Onto walls give them -- walls -- point B walls insurer might take action now. You know one -- very important -- know what action. Is a decision that just read I think the other day. Our actually name -- -- I think you'll be to embarrassingly like this process and indeed had a about the better different -- quite that would not worry about that. Another thing that's far in this is actually a few months ago. -- son -- -- in Europe -- useful thing on the top order you know here have natural you have to have having yeah well yeah. -- done people for a option -- a free market for the respect. In no recent one in the -- February when -- room billion darkness. In is -- who's got battered GE you know Menard area you give China more about these new services like I'm not at our assets back up -- away about that. So are putting in the senior. I don't think that's a good idea. Tiny negative or something else and abused acknowledged coming pro risk -- in the newswire -- will also back. It will not haul my interest more unlikely Twitter -- what I'm not quite what I thought what so unpopular now of course they need that. I'm if you go back to see new defender action. Reno's -- is facing several plastic users that keeps you from declining U -- you know coach. Interesting thing I like -- so yes I mean it's only 29 inches of some places from the back of the fund. And the question is what should the -- B. And ensure that the person in front have the right person behind. That's -- three inches behind below that -- -- -- all Internet. It's all about technology so where it can't get back it's your right you have -- Barra. And halted a six foot three just on the back maybe say not right now you should only be able to require. When the seat empty which of course never happens anymore. Anyway so this look I'm Howard doesn't have to be of course government does -- get deal right here this one very easily. The -- of course because one or find yourself though three -- Twice attitude people at a much of the -- thing there. -- -- -- -- -- -- James as the guy who ducked the drink -- industries who refused to -- -- out what we have right -- not -- a playback beverages should I was -- -- -- hundred people in call -- -- communities by James. James a bit of a -- a global -- down and no he said an interview process very embarrassed about it yes he should be. Question as well. It was watched gauge -- will be down the rule. Where Eagles and the global put India speedway is gonna come up -- -- -- -- -- come -- -- -- -- I think he's getting laid out for a very real time. Should he -- how. To a -- Google -- talking -- -- -- -- that -- like that are not rely nearly -- hotels as -- just what we're really don't think that happens Patrick. What turned out of -- within Europe he'd be pretty well are big globe in those brain was recorded email that you know. Well -- -- on a surge in domestic coal wakes. People there are probably that they might still come out what is -- has accused it doesn't get checked to take it down. Its -- -- went to -- bring back. Doesn't matter how hard it doesn't look like the only problem here -- hoping that Obama -- -- no one other break to be very kind of coming right back. People -- goal is this as a good thing for industry could -- imagine how many different users see is these links. Deal here with opinions reviews things like that. Well it's gonna it's gonna come out somehow and feel like court case about. But if your business depends links into changes you'd be thinking what -- hardest what happened here. To another one property rights. See have a partner in Europe steady at ten apartment view -- and up. Each other people have one. In the tenth what nobody lived there why because coal Liam Lawrence having held a good time when you're running -- -- -- He's picking up one -- -- -- play the -- people come here every night. Judges money get over thirty days alive for a limit will just -- primary tenant. Here and that yen too pleased about this behind the put them in every nine sometime in the tourism green who did -- -- -- -- -- the -- -- agreement warning be -- news. -- -- trash the place. What -- directly. If you're right workers right with the -- of it. What's -- out in our jurisdiction there are lots of the sense completely. Happened anyway not what the -- can do about what the Seoul high collected about this. Another question is what can be abused responsible here and -- -- facility leave -- activity should -- be -- What about the hotels. Is feeling the hotels. Would help me pretty heavy artillery attacks us hotels have to Europe off sort of see the -- help regulations. Get the people still do that again you know arguably be tougher and that -- young and so we'll -- that come up how the government decide what to do eventually -- is gonna go weak weak employment hospitality. Think back. In -- supply that was Paul we freak old media -- what likely will -- -- that yes maybe not it's growing very rapidly. About this what all the let's bring -- this tax laxer rules about tax slight roars back you have ever commercial waste into that -- have commercial well -- Inspect the cars off portal will last watermark for a long time -- -- back Knowles. Was not. Over and they're also the worst -- asthma -- map of where an admirable we don't work we just marketplace. Getting a top -- -- partly -- issues. Is that right well governments all over the world will look -- very closely you hear -- read about Germany recently Germany came out bit by about what gives a you know more -- -- Germany. -- respond -- -- we're -- anyway so strategy how this plays out. I'll I myself I longer stroke risk pileup. Right if Ukraine playground -- its prediction -- -- you don't think -- -- gonna play out what -- about. To another -- this once that happen yeah Fredricka well. Let's say this guy is at the desk a tough. -- -- -- in he did leave you sure what you wanna get -- he's -- who Google apps. He uses the which is freely available now you can -- -- if any -- -- -- -- -- -- -- role model like I do -- to as a Richard -- better be your last night. Holy See you. -- -- -- This idea -- Google labs and all the other iteration to -- getting better and -- in fact you know I don't even know somebody -- to -- going to be a high -- when -- going to be obviously. The screen in contact us I don't know what Euro beat it's been developed coming down the road camera angles were going to be. Primacy. Has an airplane industry don't know or think about. As a final point I think -- represent. Quite -- -- -- director stock quite accurately the true -- makes -- sense probable numbers were the best was medical. I'm gonna play. Our business it could be huge we hear a lot of money. In -- interchange protocol are draw while friction in the FX. I think does. Did quite pharmacy has a promise or reducing this tremendously. -- unity is to be her favourite medium of exchange for a criminal law -- assassin so -- can -- can play. In government particularly dramatic like the idea of giving up the pitchfork up the money supply. So happy to have paid on outdoor -- troubled companies expedient. Uses its bid calling -- told they're kind of break right yeah. They've done is spurred at least for a little while I what are -- what are the alive just one year bid. -- would -- very interesting you thinking about -- not properly but you may have to. -- just -- because worst point net neutrality. Big rules coming down that courts. Actually see quite an actively on this one. Gasoline slowly and market infrastructure professor like that's gonna -- been different some people. Figure out what became going to let what are going to be T I'll. So these issues W -- rules set up a marketplace. In the derby winners -- losers because. You have the -- think this through because you know -- you first of a sudden atomic power which should apply about two years ago. And -- which had sold its trying to win a pair decide. What are the on this -- on the table what changes that happen how can it play out in which about us adequately. I would -- vessel secular.