Topics>>Social, economic and political drivers needed to factor into your forecasting and performance strategy for 2014 and beyond

Social, economic and political drivers needed to factor into your forecasting and performance strategy for 2014 and beyond



  1. Middle East1:48, 2:02
  2. GM13:55
  3. Southern Europe10:32
  4. the Blue Line5:23
  5. the Orange Line5:31
  6. Portugal Spain10:35
  7. back to school20:38
  8. travel industry28:27
  9. midway stadium22:53
Tue, 14 Jan 2014|

Naureen Ahmed, Manager, Marketing & Analysis, STR Global looks at insider knowledge and early mover advantage on the hottest domestic & international markets and prepare your data strategy around this


Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

So as -- well -- at -- target their benchmarking company and we collect deer from hotels all over the world. So I'll start off. A south and a quick global snapshot of where we our -- in terms of the entire industry. Go into -- Europe Ferguson has served as -- said a quick snap shut out of I have what happened in London during the Olympics. And then finally with our expectations for 34. So standoff with as durable has -- just hitting the -- -- 27000 hotels worldwide. Which is equivalent to six point four million rim says that -- that we collect from -- -- has individually that we -- -- and then we. Provide numbers -- countries and might threaten someone's place. So where -- today. So -- -- year to date September 23 team so rapid fire percentage constraints serve as a you're not familiar with the -- -- -- players revenue per available room. So this is you know if you know it's based on the -- remaining act acts as chief Martin's F sold Baghdad on our current our pressure which personal item. So if you know based on hold and that I have available how much money there actually make. So on the day here is in us dollars except for a Europe which has -- euros. And in terms of growth levels are the regions our. A growing -- -- varies between different regions is on -- region and it's planning negative as is the age of efficient Pacific for. And for various reasons and you know -- supply issues in China and India and China day the government has cut spending so that's also having impact on the top performance. Economics is also taking impact on made -- refinements in in the various regions with Asia Pacific. Had and Middle East and Africa currently showing. Quite a higher gross here but yet to human mind is still bounced back still recovering from modest is that there having. And the continued to have -- a better than expected depending on where you're looking. I would on the bright -- Middle East Africa's -- -- uranium itself. You know. New ways to -- of consider on the safe destinations to two BN within the GCC said they get a lot of this placement demands coming into -- -- that's obviously have helping them although they still have there really really high. Growth rate when it comes to supplier -- the new guitars there still coming into the market but they're able to observe that I mean we've if you look at the first five months of this year occupancy for a harder by advertisers -- 80% -- -- what. -- unheard of am now Europe and North America they tend to mirror each other money comes to performance but what we're seeing -- this year is that the divergence in North America seems to be doing a bit better -- Europe. Definitely in terms of growth rates here said -- had slightly higher here and the -- levels and Europe has seen the CSI. See Europe and south. We're seeing -- -- So far our -- its its controlling inflation sell all our rates are capped -- collected from the hotels excluding beauty excluding taxes it's just -- rooms revenue. Where it's issued by the ripper Calderon that would solve. So includes an impact for its clients -- exclude straight excludes breakfast excludes commissions but yesterday includes inflation. And several would take that out in my little bit different. And I haven't done that recently sell -- -- have to get factory and that but essentially what we're seeing free Europe here today now it's flat growth. -- -- taking over as well we're expecting and it's definitely that -- -- -- that another former flat for this year. Up from a data perspective and we would I expect that to change very matched African expecting. -- and a flood of supply and amounts -- supply here is Europe. Rooms available Dutch airline -- and then Amanda's Jerome salvage -- line in great. Anderson and a twelve month moving average basis it's just to make the blind a little -- Snyder said. Nine despite humanly -- and -- -- -- year percentage change basis. Europe -- from a supplies and new hotels come into my kit is 9% growth has been historically and that's and that's the way it's gonna remain. It's very steady. Supply of new hotels come into the market. So -- doesn't change that often of questions Amanda's where you see it more -- cyclical what was interesting is that. Even before the crisis that we typing that you know -- 20089. -- we -- sad to see that slowdown in demand. Images of global financial crisis really just made it -- die down even further. The bounce back was quite strong bounce back quite quickly in 2010. Which is at six point 8%. That -- lying down on loss flatten out for a twenty claim twelfth and the 33 -- -- see -- -- Actually for the month of September and Europe had achieved a one million -- sold. And we've never hit that mark for a -- -- -- bubble has been collecting data so from the man perspective you know we're Europe's accumulate debt. -- -- So demand supply Jazeera are considered so that's your tolerance artefacts so. You know -- underway that demand was very much gonna dictate the way -- consumer goods. And -- the occupancy percentage growth rate that I have here is the Blue Line and -- reaction that your average daily -- of that still room rates achieved by the hotel's. Now within Europe and this -- the Orange Line on this again percentage growth -- on the twelve month moving average. So although Amanda's. It's coming at a price of lower rates. Now the -- current land of the -- what I will say when it comes to apparent -- -- applicants in India there because they react to one another. So management goes down media goes down actions as our video as out of -- the way that it goes up and down very of the lag time between them. -- we find when it occupancy goes down India is very quick follow up its takes a lot longer to come back up when -- distracts to -- -- Just during the recession you know you can see that eighty article that the longer and I consists distract fine but the -- felt really deeply into. A minute took a little bit longer. They're not concede to come back up. And then what we're seeing now in the later years as on the same -- of divergence like a split and the apparent between tac continued at. Now some of those as -- -- events of the -- in failure levels you're seeing serious Atlantic twelve. Is you know Olympics and then -- Euro for -- championships. Said edit course earnings as an example for the entire -- of the four -- championships. Average room rate was 300 -- -- every four months. So I mean that's never gonna happen again that that's where they were charging so that's obviously had inflated the rates am during -- -- month. Am now announcing that enough that -- now -- routinely -- having this big events of the sort of coming back into sort of normal levels of -- our. But when -- sustaining growth has yet. Now -- add similar generic growth -- now let's get the actual levels of supply into manned and ratify. So again the suppliers Europe -- powerful area. Euro demand is Europe gray area and you -- power is their green line. So a supplier they say continues to grow steadily for the ninety's that did during the financial crisis but again attacked it's designed to creep back up. How Reza said you know of this growth is coming -- the price of Indiana plants so the ram power actually. The key before the financial crisis it achieved in 2007 and at 72 -- us. Now September 23 team we're still at 68 jurors sit still for a euros behind what we word during the financial crisis. But obviously their memories and -- cost is one of them. You know kit -- obviously dial up in the last five years. The Euro stay strong results are having an impact is making difficult to raise the rates. So speaking of cars aren't here I have and thus collected -- for profit -- loss of this has 32. Profit and lasts information that we have from about 2200 hotels semi collected data front. -- can see here. Although cost -- carrion are arranged and sort of the profit or revenue metrics. Bora in blue -- -- class metrics are all growing high here Daniel profit or revenue metrics. Am and that's then having an impact net income -- -- -- -- -- -- -- have gone -- and in Europe's has seen all of the highest payroll increases -- line 32. Now if I break -- down -- this is got quite so. And across our operating profit per -- -- a percentage change area from 3132. And is the top five and our marketing countries achieving the highest power and in twenty tough. Mean Ireland -- one of them happier but there are serving under still recovering based they had a slower start but now. -- a twelve -- had a good -- had a good year round performance -- a lot of good -- events come into the market and demand is coming -- strand. And a line of dental day doesn't trip driving our -- -- there is there's obviously is due to Olympics. Now moving back to 33. I -- -- Jack if -- increase in the man that we're saying I don't have finally India that we're seeing. Is -- the same across. -- -- -- we can grow -- -- -- into six different classes starting from luxury all the way down to economy. And while we're seeing is -- performance of the same ladder which -- can tell you like everyone is increasing -- amounts of their occupancy is up during year. So the Arkansas -- today Toyota team as a diagonal lines of that obviously -- and then the light blue. But India has the same across other classes as are now the interesting thing to actually have to airlines Brady act. But they're literally -- coverage others so that's basically there's no change out from 32 to twenty -- eighteen. What about the different regions like south east west. So it's similar patterns of performance and the occupancy that we have a slightly different story when we talk about India. And surprisingly it -- positive story out -- here is seven year. They actually growing India yet today at twelve and two point 7%. Balance as Southern Europe is Aegean -- here Italy Portugal Spain and signs of -- I mean that -- they really can go any lower. If done as low as they possibly can. But you know and at some point I have to be able to make enough to at least cover their costs. Let's -- some understanding out -- stumble is really driving has really driven -- average waste eighteen. Ambassadors another surprise answer driving our performance. -- for -- -- -- our. And -- another interesting point is have to. Western Europe Sardinia still comes in second place we talked about the levels of India achieved. -- -- the four regions. At a market into perspective however -- neither -- -- that's in the lead so neither Europe is UK our lending and Scandinavia. But if India that's coming in a level lower and the some other regions but analysts in either Europe attacking about the debt. The crown Arizona Scania country can't -- this sterling in the UK -- -- Sterling is still quite weak and in comparison. -- clearer. The speaking of currencies. As some might be interesting is to look at. Did Amanda fireman's of the towers within those countries that have the Euro and us countries -- debt. So the land back do you have -- out our in black and one step down under angrily. Central user patterns and performance they obviously -- follow each other is to depending on the different times of the year they have a different level of growth or decline. So I guess -- and surprising that those countries who had the Euro had a greater fault lenders who did entering the crisis. -- that was interesting both kind of came back up at the same time and posted prices at 7% in November 30. And -- -- -- followed each other but what we're starting to see now is that gap is widening between the demand growth. Between a versatile as within the eurozone does with -- that. So -- wanted to vent keep an -- -- for. Sell let's look at some key cities are markets that we are track within Europe services. -- continued -- percentage change year to date have between thirteen and now looking -- in local currency. -- had negative growth -- did as a fact of the Olympics. Letters on the coming out in nearly -- -- -- I said selling is doing well there still some exceptions among major there's probably one of those it's still service. To a struggling barred from our continued -- prospective. As a -- AdSense so that's of second line here means that occupancy growth that's that's really strong and we haven't seen that for a really long time -- And then back right now it's must imagine they haven't answered they don't have any corporate surmise that we're hoping that that might come back and in the next two years. Rumours showing some growth but very right now at Berlin Euro. Very limited growth -- silver supply issues and Rand doesn't really video and 32. A couple -- medical climate says anything air show this year last year to assert that the change from the annual -- negative. Is stumbled. Dave -- actions because of the riots and protests and the science of forest however would have been really pushing rates aren't this year -- -- GM now here oversupply issues that have a lot of new supply coming into the market -- -- had a lot of biennial event last year and -- arbiters of that happening this year so that's not surprising that change. And got Canadians doing dad did the fact that actually had no supply growth plan at oft. And now let's look at the actual I didn't see it levels achieved -- is my kids and -- -- -- -- -- now idea we're now looking at euros of their medicine is -- level flooding from the markets. Now on leave. You know -- -- -- -- industry huge overlap the 60% applicants seeing -- Euro hits it's quite reasonable it's going to feel like any good position. And most of these markets are about 60% with exception of absence and and the press. Now for a my -- -- rewiring it could come nation and leisure and corporate and the sensors -- absence plan is knowledgeable and by -- having -- -- -- the -- -- complete opposite -- MasterCard -- are now -- at. -- a look at top performers landowners still top contender I can see. It's done an incredible year so far this year and as our share with dual arm in a couple minutes post Olympics. And Dublin has also doing really well this year as several factors since the -- convention Centre helping end of -- 30. At -- and a slower than 32 there really picked up that align their business entry -- -- doing the same. Also that we're seeing -- -- of US companies went down then global macro stuff they -- have the European headquarters in Dublin due to. Obviously tax reasons why we're seeing this year. Is adequate -- travellers are kind back. Their debt having either coming back into into the country and they have I'm reading says that also driving the demand for that city. And then the third -- pacts and -- you know London like Paris has been -- the -- -- -- destinations in Europe so it's not surprising that we have done in the top three here. For a mini -- prospective -- here at number one position. Our online Internet is that we have more luxury hotels and our sample also and we have a look at where the lack of sample within the mid market range that's driving up -- performance. However if we take that out the second will be Zurich and that's Swiss -- driven because -- -- -- in euros. And then -- minister on the top three. And with the sterling remaining -- that's helping them actually and actually help them during the financial crisis and that expectation is that. The strain will remain weak going for it. -- going into the Olympics. Am sapphire blue -- -- show you some -- get their share of what happened before Olympics I have injuring Olympics so what's happened cents. And there are a lot of interesting factor set come out of so this so the month by month performance from January 32 to September 23 teen -- react today. Today's action occupancy levels achieved by the hotels in London and India achieve by 2009 -- and this is in pounds now. So we see the mines prior to the Olympics and might have -- Olympics. And in -- Olympic blues said June July. In -- -- Dimon knew -- -- get 90% I can see this as just as less than 85% occupancy and mean. There was a massive displacement it was a weakness. Wimbledon have ever seen in terms of the -- performance for -- now advanced. And July even though they had fire brown would design the biggest air shows -- -- UK that happens every -- was again another weak performing. Week. And this as a -- -- we see in -- host cities couple months before the Olympics there's definitely a drop in demand. Cells with us today anywhere -- -- our Tokyo now that's something to keep in mind and I don't think there's much we can do to change that because it's. -- related -- the same for a Beijing in the -- negative press prior to the Olympics. Same for Landon immigration problems -- country transportation -- glad that cell. -- that allowed said the two weeks among them is amazing and I am exactly that I seek an issue every issue. And then we have Olympics direct obviously ended July into Argus. And that in an incredible India actually for the two weeks -- for the Olympics. Land and achieved a daily daily our rate of 200 pounds and the know everything we've never seen in children -- -- -- actually buy -- thousand London for as long as we've been collecting it. So -- -- that's not gonna happen again so now we're coming into 33. So these lines here -- -- lower them upwards are out here 420 tough. Now -- Clinton out about. The two weeks of the Olympics -- completely different type of customer in mind that point. We have Olympic Games -- -- -- -- coming going to the games venue and the climactic but I just asleep. -- in the town -- -- was full -- from a hotel room prospector and the there was solid it was great everything was prepaid -- -- No -- -- -- in anything us nothing less can mean I think in the spires and -- nothing and any other attractions so. What your key attractions like the first week of the Olympics everyone was saying Ali -- visitor numbers have completely die down and and stand alone were stranded on so -- complain that you know there were there was there was a reduced numbers shopping as our. Because when people come against an iota but got arrested two military. Said the once again -- -- besides that something just to their -- you -- you spent a lot of money. Comes against even spent as much time as you can gain against the -- so that was that was something that as a venture sell. India was occupancy was out for London. Can't find against -- definitely anything else outside of that from the task prospective was not up yeah. Am announcing today my right -- about landowners and clients. So Ramadan felt right during the middle of the Olympics. Does actually getting from the -- -- entire -- -- -- -- can not say no team at least think that. Again we there was no way does that inevitable can't they at least -- to come every year. But get a whole floor and said. Sorry -- -- similar thinks that we can have you don't know. That would have an absolutely disastrous. So anyway that does benefit from the fact that you have Ramadan during the Olympics because during Ramadan other listing guess they go back com. They go back -- -- stand Ramadan at Harman in the comeback after raids. And in this day around to say -- London Geneva Paris or some key destinations I think you know -- benefits from nurses -- Mr. around until September when the kids have to go back to school. So what we Saab host -- and then wrap and imposed in the mix of same time endeavour and -- -- -- Ramadan the Middle Eastern gas they came back. Until we're seeing that now it's up. So what was important traders -- or eight you know -- Iran and shifts you know to about two weeks earlier sell them. July numbers a little bit weaker as a result of that as well. Because there really big driving force between behind the numbers during the summer months inland and said that's going to be interesting to see had entered into place next year when you have entire month of July having Ramadan so -- so interesting to see had a hotels and manage their performance then however Fabrice climb back -- it let another good week. Have good data coming out. Now post Olympics. So right now after so from September up twelve runway it's quite -- -- was really strong for London. And this year is that we had a bit of bumpy start to quite a one that had we've had a lot of new supply coming to into line -- and -- -- define the space that they do. And it's it's been that really really bumper year for them it's just into an alarming -- the race that we're seeing coming out now mid 251 pounds. For the month of September we've never seen initiative -- accounts for the month of September. And looking at the daily statistics for a tour operator and the 61 -- -- for their forecasts together for a politics you know -- 3450 analyst. We can finally reason why the rich and continue going up so it's an interesting to see how that continues to play out. Now -- -- if we take between twelve to be that anomaly here so I'll why now why does London looks like now comparative -- western 31. Sued yet when he Levin told -- between that and we're already 2% -- can see and then daily three pounds in terms of -- yeah. Now actually didn't mind you today Landon has had -- a 4% increase in supplies of 4% increase since by means you know on the new rooms are coming into the market. In -- market that already has a 100000 hotel rooms and a market that traditionally army has about 1% supply go to -- to -- a lot. That's settling more than -- sure. So keeping in mind and midway stadium as you some could argue whether Iberia had you know -- -- baby being boring and then you know that's kind of things how Africa. Yet today -- actually see it. -- same spine and in terms of march -- -- so basically this means there's an enough amount coming into London to have absolutely -- obviously -- supply that's coming in. To achieve the same levels of -- and city actually haven't decreased just a good thing. But you have removing that much in the Ray -- in -- -- add back about three months. -- so that brings me I'm into a sort of add the PS. So we can we have. And the very thousand hotels N. -- -- primary -- in Europe. And the -- -- dozen of those -- the last twelve mines and we have another 30000 -- we're expecting to open in the next few years moving forward. But mid predominantly they're becoming -- -- market segment. And if we look at who has the largest pipeline. On top of their existing suppliers and UK comes out on top. So I -- nonetheless spending keep getting more new hotels in the foreseeable future. Ambac shares and in second place a lot of that terrorism is -- going to surge to an end date place we have Janet. I think from investment perspective both Germany in the UK still considered to be so attractive destinations so you leaves definitely still expect can expect to make a profit out of -- that's of interest above that I -- some investors. Now and also expectations. Moving forward. So here we have our GDP growth rate on a quarterly basis of -- that hotel the man growth rate a quarterly basis. So from a -- prospective they do -- each -- of course that the growth levels very from one to another. Have what we're seeing so we for cancer tourism economics and they're putting together GDP for Casas offer the euro's down. So there is saying -- and I expecting meaningful GDP growth and to morally 34. -- basis. We've probably expecting to be true for a hotel demand -- We're so distracting pick up to wait 34 and hopefully back very very muted it's gonna it's not gonna be there. Pat you know -- and spikes we've seen -- And matures -- country fought cancer for 26 markets globally. -- 46 says three. With exception of three -- Other markets our above the line -- so basically island under -- says I've got the -- considers. And on the Y axis about the India growth. So that the positive thing as majority and the top right hand -- quite -- adjusting both positive and as a -- growth -- both -- and -- -- -- And even the ones who -- on the left hand side of the negative factors considered are still expecting positive India grow to 24 team is definitely going to be year driven by. Eight -- growth -- tiny thirteen was -- man Japan and absolutely no way Europe where growth as -- earlier we expect that -- changing so. Meanings of the flat or slightly depending on where you wire but definitely more eighty actor Ben. And down some exceptions of the ones in the negative while worrisome -- absence. -- -- continued to us to try and recover our -- from their rate growth. The -- had a lot of new supply come into the market. Madrid as parliament exceptions out within Spain continues to struggle and absence they still have a lot of work to do. And some -- the positive bad players here I disorder and plant there must see event Germans a lot of the trade players are coming in now. Anderson of give piggyback off 1 another -- an answer to Glasgow as their next year will have positive coming -- gains in July. And then the Ryder Cup disaster coming to -- and that'll impact the performance of the fund established markets as well. Now everything about something key source markets that are driving -- European refinements. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Reza said earlier when nine expecting much growth until 24 -- mean baron -- you know uncertainty still remaining in unemployment is still some major concern. But you know there are some positive and in Germany obviously you know what we expect one point 7% growth for this year there that. For the next -- actually so those that steady demand coming through of the Euro well will continue to is. Welcome to build a stick at one point 32 of the -- -- there will go down to one point two -- expectations as long as. The Euro stabilises and stays weak you know that -- that will help. Finance and you know driving the demand for -- -- Fretting about the US -- another key source market free Europe. They have at 42031 point six GDP growth in between said pointing two point seven men. You know it's really private sector driving -- that we hope that you know consumer spending will continue and they'll continue to travellers are from UK prospective. And in UK it was actually don't tie up traveller outbound within Europe for advisory team and the UK then they'd love to travel. And we expect that to continue for 34. As up. And then just a couple of points that I want into. The -- does my some my personal finance about sort of hotel and travel industry in general. And initiating is probably my biggest concerns from -- -- -- -- that the bank -- years without creating an -- -- -- UK as an example has twenty pretended he currently. So customers and consumers are still paying an additional 24 -- everything that we're seeing here. So I mean you know this is one my personal. Opinions and it comes the -- and then -- that's. It needs to be the processes that is happening yet voted again and using UK as another example but you get that private showing again. I think that does something like the barrier entries for the -- Ending respect from lesser extent -- planning a family holiday and my cousins from manage their fight for the Chinese -- that they couldn't be -- back for the UK under the too much about source -- everybody does to Spain originally a fans something -- and I expect. And that's things -- canary Dan has joined the -- -- Am and then personally and this has an interesting. But a factor -- pick them drained of -- M Canada about nineteen million Chinese travellers. If present a that are going to -- -- in the cap -- because they love to gamble on. The remaining 20% 80% climb with an Asia summer the Q benefactors -- here -- Thailand and Malaysia for example. So that -- 20% is going to everywhere else in the -- to Europe is still just getting a fraction. Of that nineteen million. Chinese -- said there is definitely still a lot of work to -- allow more potential. And one of the good things I think the UK is -- -- tremendous user is a crisis for any Chinese -- -- they do that their success -- that'll -- fantastic back. We're gonna have to keep in mind that we need to cater to them -- we need to. Change the way that we deal with with those Chinese clients like from a -- perspective you definitely need to have. Some financed Africans speak the language in unique captured in the same way that you did the Japanese -- years and in the eighties. How many come on the buses take pictures now you know there looking for an experience -- really looking for something new end. They want to be seen in the face of these scene and -- one. Del cinema during a tougher -- eight and the rest -- -- their -- -- budget for the so they're very different than -- LaSalle you know as they start coming -- we're gonna have to -- -- -- -- of these factors -- Those -- my -- -- I want to and we have in hand.

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